From seven children to fewer than two — in half a century, the Maghreb rewrote its demographic story. In the 1970s, women in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia were having between seven and eight children on average. By the early 1990s, that figure had halved. Today, according to a new study by France’s Institut national d’études démographiques, the Maghreb is experiencing a fertility collapse that is “historic” in scale and appears “durably” entrenched — reshaping the region’s demographics in ways that will take decades to fully unfold.
Morocco’s fertility rate reached a historic low of 1.97 children per woman in 2024 — below the 2.1 replacement threshold — the result of a steady, uninterrupted decline since the 1990s and the highest contraception rate in the region: 71% of married Moroccan women use contraception, compared to 50-55% in Algeria and Tunisia. Tunisia has gone further, recording a rate of 1.58 in 2023 and a projected 1.53 in 2024 — driven in large part by a sustained delay in the age of marriage, which stood at 28.9 years for Tunisian women in 2024. Algeria, where fertility briefly rebounded to above three children per woman between 2000 and 2017, has since declined to 2.61.
“If the natural balance turns negative, the population can only grow through a positive migration balance — and the Maghreb has historically been marked by a negative one.”
— INED study authors
Behind the numbers lie structural changes: longer education cycles, delayed entry into the workforce and, in particular, the shifting professional trajectories of women across all three countries. These forces, the INED researchers note, are not temporary disruptions but deep social transformations that have redefined when — and whether — families are formed.
An ageing region with no migration cushion
The demographic consequences are already visible. In Tunisia, the share of those under 20 is shrinking sharply, while the over-60 population has grown from 8% in 1997 to 17% in 2024. Morocco and Algeria are ageing more moderately — 13.8% and 10.5% of their populations are over 60, respectively — but the INED researchers warn that the pace will accelerate in the coming years as the effects of falling birth rates compound over time.
What makes the Maghreb’s situation structurally distinct from Europe’s is the absence of a migration cushion. As fertility falls and natural population growth slows, European countries have been able to offset demographic decline through immigration. The Maghreb faces the opposite dynamic: it has historically been a region of emigration, not immigration. If its natural balance turns negative, the INED study concludes, population growth will depend entirely on migration trends that are “uncertain and difficult to anticipate”.
- Source: AFP